The Eclectic

Time moves in one direction, memory in another. – William Gibson

The Leslie Theory of Tech adoption rates

Posted by David Leslie on August 30, 2004

Every once in awhile, I run across one of those dreaded marketing studies dealing with the adoption rate of new Technologies into the mainstream.

Almost always they have some marketing munbo jumbo by which they break down out the groups.

Rather than moan and complain, I’ve decided to come up with my own with groups that make more sense to the average techie.

Geeks: First to run everything.
Technology in the hands of the Average Joe: Has no hope of running it without giving up a weekend and then its a maybe followed by “Now What?”

College Kids: Friend in the computer lab hooks them up and next thing you know the whole dorm is on it.
Technology in the hands of the average Joe: Needs the college kid to help get started but finds its pretty cool and worth the $30 for the pizza and wings

AOL: The world’s largest provider adds it as a feature to its new software
Technology in the hands of the average Joe: It is in the hands of the Average Joe who took the time to watch the flash movie on how to set it up.

Verb: Enters the collective language. Like “Email me” that or I’ll burn it for you”.

So that’s it.. Now what about the stuff I’ve been interested in? Well…

Blog: Almost to verb. I mean bloggers got Press Passes to the DNC this year. Just don’t say blog around some of the press, they still think you need a masters in journalism to write.

RSS: Between College Kids and AOL at the moment. College kids at the moment. Strong love in the computer science lab among those left and the media barons are busting out their Push based media models to try and make a buck. Yet it’s not quite on AOL radar but it is on Microsoft’s and Mozilla’s.

Wiki: Between Geek and College Kids but gaining speed. Wikipedia has started another “It’s not authoritative” cries from the academic community. I could dig up papers talking about the web 8 years ago, swap Web for Wikipedia and get published. Yet if publishers keep driving up prices for online references tools, don’t be stunned to see the Net step in and fill the void. Remember, Free and good will always beat fee and excellent.

One other thing, when those college kids graduate, they’ll expect the level of tech they had in school in “the world”.


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